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Wishing For a “Santa Claus Rally” This Christmas

Updated: Jan 7, 2019

Doug Famigletti, Portfolio Manager

Michael Jamison, Portfolio Manager

December 11, 2018

According to the data compiled by Bloomberg (below), the S&P 500 has posted an average December gain of 1.61 percent since 1950, the biggest advance for any month of the year. Given that the S&P 500 has been down nearly 4% so far this month, here’s 3 holiday wishes that could potentially influence a December market rally:

1. Relief From Tax Loss Selling

October and November tend to be months where large institutions do the majority of their tax loss selling. The lion’s share of this activity is likely complete and the market could benefit in the coming weeks.

2. Strong Holiday Retail Sales

JP Morgan predicts 3% growth in online and brick and mortar retail sales. Early signs of strong holiday sales could also help move the market higher.

3. Favorable Trade Talks With China

There’s lots of speculation around the legitimacy of the trade talks that took place between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi last week; hopefully the US and China will find good reason to move discussions in a positive direction this holiday season.


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