May 12, 2021
Michael Jamison, Portfolio Manager
The old Wall Street adage “Sell In May and Go Away” might prove to be bad advice to those that abide by it, according to data released by LPL Financial. The U.S. stock market has had positive returns in 8 of the last 10 years from May to October. Per Figure 1, below, the S&P 500 produced an average gain of 3.8% for all 10 years, beating a 1.7% average since 1950. Last year’s increase was 12.3%, the biggest it has seen since 2009.
Figure 1
Market returns over the next 6 months may be heavily influenced by the decisions made by Jerome Powell and his colleagues. The Fed has stated that it expects to keep interest rates low while achieving maximum employment (1). Central banks have also gone on record stating that inflation concerns are unwarranted in the short-term (2). Investors that decide to stay the course in May, could possibly reap the rewards come fall of 2021.
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/fed-holds-interest-rates-near-zero-sees-faster-growth-and-higher-inflation.html
2. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-central-banks-analysis/analysis-central-banks-will-happily-ignore-inflation-mongers-idUSKCN2AT1KL
All material of opinion reflects the judgement of Adviser at this time and are subject to change. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument or investment advisory services.